The Debate on the State of the Market Rages On as Third Quarter Stats are Released

Today’s Headlines

Taken from:
The New York Times Manhattan Apartment Sales Bounced Back Over the Summer, but Not All the Way by Josh Barbanel
Published October 2, 2009

It’s the question that has been on the minds of many New Yorkers: Has the real estate market reached a bottom yet? After a year of declines in Manhattan co-op and condominium sales, the residential market has recovered enough to finally have real estate appraisers and brokers approach this debate. Here, some statistics from the third quarter market reports released today (Friday, October 02, 2009):

• From July through September sales rose sharply from the second quarter, up 45.6 percent, but are down 16 percent from the levels they were at a year ago.
• For the most part, sale prices moved sideways this quarter although prices of apartments and new condominiums continued to fall. The average co-op and condo apartment sale price is now at $1.32 million, off 10.6 percent from the same quarter in 2008, but up 0.8 percent from the second quarter.
• Co-op prices are down 5.9 percent from the previous quarter, while condominium prices are up 3 percent.
• Average sale price on Upper East Side townhouses is still 50 percent below the price in the first quarter of last year.
  

With all of this exciting new data, the debate on the market has sparked speculation from multiple New York real estate firms:

• A spokesman from Miller Samuel Inc. said that while the Manhattan housing market may be getting better in some ways, it has “not yet found a bottom.” The company attributed the current situation of the market to high local unemployment and tight credit.
• Many firms are more optimistic and are reporting that they had experience their busiest summer in years because buyers who had been scared of pulling the trigger in the spring had more confidence in the market. Dorothy Herman, the president of Prudential Douglas Elliman says, “We see the market as stabilizing. It has hit bottom.”
• Hall F. Willkie, president of Brown Harris Stevens, believes that with the rebound in the stock market and slowing job losses buyers are becoming more comfortable and that “confidence is returning to the marketplace.”
• Pamela Liebman of the Corcoran Group believes that “if we are not at a bottom, we are close to it.” However, she also says that despite the increase in sales, there is little evidence that prices will rise significantly in the near future.
  

Those who believe the market has yet to hit bottom attribute the sharp rise in sales to a shift in the busy season due to economic conditions. Usually, the spring is the busiest season for apartment sales in Manhattan. This year sales were halted due to the struggling economy and therefore the surge happened later. The spring market, in effect, occurred this summer.

Despite all of the hearsay, the new market has yet to take shape. But one thing is for certain—people are buying, and New Yorkers can’t ignore that sneaking suspicion that it is time, once again, to feel comfortable in the marketplace.


News Flash

Update from Alfred Real Estate

For those of you who think the real estate market is still dead, it is time to think again! The market is alive and property is selling. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. Sellers—the time has come to once again feel comfortable putting your property up for sale. Buyers—now is as good a time as ever to invest in a new home.

One of Alfred Real Estate’s principal brokers recently decided to invest in property and submitted a bid that was 10% less than the asking price. A few months ago she may have had it in the bag, but as it turns out she was one of three bids, and not even the highest at that! In fact, encouraged by the demand on his property the seller decided to have another open house to solicit more potential buyers. At the open house he plans to have a highest-and-best-bid closed auction. People are back in the market, and if the price is right, they are buying!